It was a year ago that we set our sights on Egypt as a promising emerging market when the fragrance of an early Arab Spring set in and caused a hasty retreat and pause. A retrospective on 2011 brings similar scenarios to mind despite entering the year with superlatives of change, transformation, and hope.
Yet there is a sense of deja vu - have we seen this movie before?
Yet there is a sense of deja vu - have we seen this movie before?
Consider these milestones among so many others that we witnessed in 2011:
- The Arab Spring
- Whiffs of a Jasmine Spring
- Passing of the Baton in DPRK
- Tidal waves in Fukushima
- Fraying of the EU and the Euro
- Retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan
- Final nail in the Osama chapter
- Anna Hazare's protests against corruption in India
- Occupy Wall Street
- Protests in Kazakhstan and the Kremlin
Instead of a sense of amelioration in 2012 there are gathering clouds over the horizon - looking both east and to the west.
The superpowers in both hemispheres will be caught up in inward crystal gazing with the november Presidential elections in the U.S. and the sweeping leadership changes in China's Party. The EU has yet to weather the sovereign debt crisis storm. Drum-beating has marked the new year in the Hormuz Straits. Pakistan's state of affairs reached a new nadir. India's economic engine has fast lost steam and seen its currency plunge over 15% in recent months. And fear has struck a chord among nation states in the South China Seas. This is the way the year ended.
A weakened U.S. economy, a crumbling eurozone, a stagnant Indian economy, and an over-heated and restless China may be a portent of another tumultuous year ahead. Whither the vibrant emerging markets of Asia?
In the months ahead, among other issues we'll examine the promise of BRICS, the dynamics within ASEAN and SAARC, the glimmer reflected in Myanmar and Sri Lanka, the understated potential in Indonesia, the achilles' heel of corruption uniformly mired across emerging markets, and frail political wills.
We'll also keep a guard on the rootless anchors of the U.S. and Europe as both China and India seek to establish new unchained anchors in the vast emerging markets between them and shape the gravity that has shifted in defining a new Asia.
It would come as no surprise if in our predictions the newsreel of history debuts again in 2012. We can be ever hopeful with cautious optimism. To paraphrase the wisdom of the hollow men, this is the way the year starts, not with a bang but a whimper.
